Project
Assessing Welfare of Nutrient Targets and Alternate Policies on Lake Erie’s Ecosystem and Economy
Excessive and variable nutrient loading along with other stressors have resulted in harmful algal blooms (HABs) and hypoxia in Lake Erie, which negatively impact the ecosystem services the lake provides to the economy. To control nutrients, the governments of the US and Canada are calling for reduced annual nutrient loads of 40% in Lake Erie, to be achieved primarily through regulation of agricultural runoff. While clearer water may increase recreation, it may also lead to lower fish production and jeopardize fishery sustainability. Lake Erie faces other stressors (e.g., climate change and invasive species) that also complicate the ecological effects of nutrient reduction and that ripple through the regional economies, making industries that depend on the fishery (e.g., commercial fisheries, recreation) vulnerable. Thus, to quantify the feasibility of nutrient reduction in Lake Erie, we must have a comprehensive understanding of how the economic and ecological systems rely on each other. Here we build a coupled bioeconomic modeling framework to (1) investigate the direct and indirect effects of nutrient policies on fisheries, recreation, tourism, agriculture, and the broader economy, and to (2) assess the uncertain economic outcomes associated with other stressors. Our project apprises whether nutrient targets are an effective policy to improve economic wellbeing and Lake Erie provisions of ecosystem services in both current climatic conditions and those expected in the future.